Publications

16.04.2014

East Ukraine: The Revenge of Yanukovych?

Balázs Jarábik

Kyiv’s anti-separatist operation could isolate and limit separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine, while the government attempts to deliver financial and economic assistance to the East, which is vital to Kyiv’s ability to reassert itself in the region.

16.04.2014

The Russian State Power and the Ukrainian Human Factor

Maria Lipman

Russia will likely succeed in holding sway over Ukraine and turning this country into its buffer zone, but it cannot secure itself from the people’s resentment and resistance.

15.04.2014

The Mystery of Russian Strategy for Ukraine

Eugene Rumer

One could only guess what Russia’s real goal in Ukraine is. However, sooner or later Moscow will need to deal with someone in Kyiv, and will need a political strategy to end the crisis.

14.04.2014

Ukraine: Weekend Rendez-Vous With History

Dmitri Trenin

Sunday’s events put Ukraine on the brink of civil war. However, there is still a chance to prevent the worst, but it can only be used when those calling political shots inside and outside Ukraine rise to their responsibility.

11.04.2014

Japan Looks at Ukraine and Fears Czechoslovakia, 1948

Akio Kawato

Japan makes judgment about Ukraine in the context of her balancing game among the United States, Russia, and China. However, if Moscow sends troops to Eastern Ukraine, the Japanese political class will unanimously support serious measures to stop Russia.

10.04.2014

Kyrgyzstan: When Change Confirms Continuity

Alexey Malashenko

It is likely that Kyrgyzstan will become a member of the Customs Union. Moreover, Kyrgyzstan’s integration process with Russia was not substantially affected by the developments in Ukraine.

9.04.2014

Georgia in Ferment

Thomas de Waal

Despite the fact that political feuds continue, there is a clear political consensus in Georgia on a European path.

9.04.2014

Gülen: Top Issue in the Agenda of Erdoğan’s Visit to Azerbaijan

Bayram Balci

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan takes the battle against the Gülen movement beyond the national borders, and it seems that his visit to Azerbaijan, to a large extent, was motivated by the omnipresence of Gülen followers whose activities in Azerbaijan are massive and successful.

8.04.2014

India The Abstainer

Petr Topychkanov

The challenges New Delhi faces inside the country and along its borders do not allow it to fully support the Russian annexation of Crimea, since this would create a precedent that can be used against India’s own territorial integrity. However, India could not denounce Russia either, because it acted similarly four decades ago.

8.04.2014

The “Besieged Fortress” Virus

Lilia Shevtsova

After the Russian annexation of Crimea, the Belarusian President Lukashenko starts creating a “besieged fortress” and mobilizing the Belarusians to defend their country from potential Russian aggression. Moreover, Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev may follow Lukashenko’s example. It is clear that the future Eurasian Union cannot be strong.

7.04.2014

Transnistria: A Gathering Storm

Dmitri Trenin

Moldova’s government wants association with the EU, but is committed to the “reunification of Moldova” by means of “re-integration” of Transnistria. The reality, however, is that Moldova can be made whole only if it decided to turn east rather than west.

4.04.2014

Russian-Western Confrontation: Prepare for a Long Haul

Dmitri Trenin

For the U.S. public and its political establishment, Russia is back as an adversary. Having taken on U.S. power, the Russian state will need to be very smart—and very good—to withstand the confrontation.

3.04.2014

Will the Crimean Tatars Become Russia’s Headache?

Alexey Malashenko

The situation around Crimea’s Tatars remains complicated despite Moscow’s evident readiness to compromise.

2.04.2014

Adrift on the Black Sea

Thomas de Waal

The Black Sea region could do with some Turkish soft power, but it looks as though this is not a priority for Prime Minister Erdogan.

1.04.2014

Two Presidents, Two Epochs, Two Systems

Lilia Shevtsova

Today’s world is again facing the civilizational choice which was recently expressed in the speeches of Putin and Obama representing two civilizations with starkly different norms.

31.03.2014

Europe: The “Holiday From History” Is Over

Dmitri Trenin

The continuing crisis over Ukraine has significantly hardened Western official and media attitudes toward Russia. However, with Washington leading the charge and NATO back in the saddle, the European Union is taking a back seat.

28.03.2014

Putin’s Crimean Conquest Pushes Russia to an Anti-Modernization Course

Maria Lipman

The seizure of Crimea is Putin’s personal conquest, as well as a dramatic reinforcement of his regime of personal power. For now Putin has succeeded in halting Russia’s social and economic modernization and has pushed Russia to an anti-modernization course.

27.03.2014

Despite Crimea, Western-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic Should Continue

Sarah Norris

Cooperation among Arctic states is essential to reducing the potential for political, economic, or small military clashes. The fallout from the Crimea crisis, however, could spoil elements of Arctic cooperation.

26.03.2014

Crimea and Karabakh

Thomas de Waal

As soon as the Crimea crisis struck, both Armenia and Azerbaijan immediately hardened their positions on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict.

25.03.2014

On the Western Narrative on the Post-Post Cold War Époque

Lilia Shevtsova

Those who believe that the Kremlin will be satisfied with Crimea and will agree to return to a new “reset” do not understand the nature of the Russian personalized power and its logic that tries to prolong its life at the expense of breaking the rules and even destroying the world order.

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