Publications

24.03.2014

MH370 Challenge for Asia-Pacific Security

Petr Topychkanov

Two weeks search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was an example of both impressive regional cooperation and discouraging limits of such cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.

24.03.2014

Russia: Pivoting to Asia or Just to China?

Dmitri Trenin

Russia’s economic, political and strategic environment in the West is fast deteriorating. One obvious way to respond to this is to reach out to Asia and the Pacific.

21.03.2014

On Crimea’s Annexation. How Long Will Putin’s “Judo Diplomacy” Keep Working?

Akio Kawato

In Crimea, Putin will face the financial burden which the annexation will incur. Crimea’s case may seem to be manageable at first, but the expenditure will absorb all money and Russia’s already dwindling investment will be brought to nil.

20.03.2014

Extreme Makeover: Ukraine Oligarch Edition

Alexandra McLees

Ukrainian oligarchs face a very real threat of seeing parts of their business empires disrupted by a political crisis over which they have no control.

19.03.2014

Welcome to the Twilight Zone, Crimea

Thomas de Waal

Most Crimeans probably do not realize it yet, but without a shot being fired and in the space of just a few days, Crimea has joined the list of European territories that live in the twilight zone of international sovereignty.

17.03.2014

The Day After: Is It Technically Difficult to Annex Crimea?

Sergei Aleksashenko

Russian troops in Crimea are necessary not simply to protect it from a possible invasion by the Ukrainian army, but rather to incorporate Crimea into Russia’s financial infrastructure as soon as possible.

17.03.2014

Crimea’s Choice

Dmitri Trenin

The Crimea referendum, in which the people of the region have massively voted to join Russia, marks a watershed in Russia’s foreign policy: Russia has stopped walking backward and has made a step forward. As for Ukraine, it will be for the foreseeable future a geopolitical battleground.

14.03.2014

The End of Free Press in Russia

Maria Lipman

The Ukrainian crisis has intensified the Kremlin’s crackdown on the Russian media. Nongovernment media simply no longer belong in today’s Russia.

14.03.2014

The Russian Intervention in Crimea: Erdogan’s Dilemma

Bayram Balci

The Ukrainian and Crimean crisis are a major challenge for Turkish diplomacy but there is no serious indication that Turkey will stand against Russia. The priority for the Turkish government now is to ensure it will survive the corruption scandals and upcoming elections.

13.03.2014

Why It Is Not Only the Battle Over Crimea That Will Determine Ukraine’s Future

Kateryna Pishchikova

As the new Ukrainian government is struggling to contain the crisis in Crimea, the broader picture should not be lost from sight. Comprehensive political reforms and an inclusive and transparent political process are needed to renew and strengthen political institutions and regain legitimacy.

12.03.2014

Watching Moldova

Thomas de Waal

If Vladimir Putin has a new doctrine of intervention, Moldova is vulnerable. But thus far both Chisinau and Transnistria have been quiet, while the crisis rages next door.

11.03.2014

Scotland and Crimea: Debating the Costs and Benefits of Secession

Bruno Coppieters

The secession of Scotland would alter the balance of power between the main member states of the European Union, while the secession of Crimea would have the same effect at the global level.

11.03.2014

Ukraine as a Challenge of Perception

Lilia Shevtsova

While a global crisis, provoked by the recent developments in Ukraine, has brought the world to the edge, the political and intellectual world has demonstrated how unprepared it is for the new challenges and how difficult it is to grasp the new reality.

7.03.2014

Crimea’s Tatar Factor

Alexey Malashenko

The “Islamic factor” in the Crimean crisis has received relatively little attention so far. However, the complexities of Crimean ethnoreligious realities should not be ignored.

6.03.2014

No European Impact in Central Asia?

Ann-Sophie Gast

The EU is resolutely engaging with the CIS states trying to tie them closer to the Union and create a European sphere of influence. However, in Central Asia it failed to leave its political footprint and make a difference on the ground.

5.03.2014

Playing the Compatriot Card

Thomas de Waal

It is not clear whether “protection of compatriots” is a new foreign-policy goal Putin intends to apply elsewhere—or whether he is just using any weapon he can to undermine the new authorities in Kyiv. In any case, playing the “compatriot card” is a dangerous game.

5.03.2014

Ukraine: Law of Unintended Consequences Illustrated, Part II

Lilia Shevtsova

Ukraine became the place where the open crisis of the post-Soviet model occurred. This means that the country may become only the first stage in the chain of future collapses. Also, with Russian invasion in Ukraine the entire international system that came into being after 1991 is starting to crumble.

4.03.2014

Ukraine: Law of Unintended Consequences Illustrated

Lilia Shevtsova

The Kremlin’s intervention in Crimea and direct involvement in the destabilization of the southeast of Ukraine exemplifies Putin’s Doctrine. This concept is based on the premise that Russia can only exist as the center of the galaxy surrounded by the satellite-statelets.

3.03.2014

Before the Emotions Bring a New World War: Look Into the Real Situation in Ukraine

Akio Kawato

The Ukrainian events develop rapidly with a great sense of alarm; it not only involves danger of terrorism in Moscow, but also entails a big risk for East Asia. The main question now is who would be ready to take charge of the situation.

1.03.2014

The Brink of War in Ukraine?

Dmitri Trenin

The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.

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