War and Peace in the Caucasus


One Year On: Russia and the South Caucasus After the Karabakh War

To mark the first anniversary of the Second Karabakh War, a group of experts from the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies published the book Storm Over the Caucasus. Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote the book’s afterword.

What Does Pashinyan’s Victory Bode for Armenia and the Region?

Aware of his new reputation as “Baku’s candidate,” Pashinyan will likely try to negotiate small victories, such as getting more prisoners of war released, and pass these off as the results of his firm position. Building on that, he will promise bigger victories soon to come, such as the transit of goods to Russia via Azerbaijan.

What Does U.S. Recognition of the Armenian Genocide Mean for Turkey-Russia relations?

Washington’s recognition of the Armenian genocide is far from the main problem in U.S.-Turkish relations, which have been in crisis now for several years.

Who Will Russia Back in Armenia’s Upcoming Election?

Russia will likely watch how the Armenian election campaign unfolds, helping first one side and then the other. It has many levers of influence there, but not enough to assume complete control.

Post–Revolution and War, Armenia Must Find a Geopolitical Balance

Armenian diplomacy will depend far more on external factors from now on. A multi-vector foreign policy will remain in its national interests, but now that will be easier said than done.

Does Georgia’s Latest Crisis Have Global Implications?

In Russia—both in expert circles and in the corridors of power—the possibility of Saakashvili reentering Georgian politics, never mind returning to power, is seen as little short of a catastrophe. But putting emotions to one side, it’s clear that Georgian Dream’s foreign policy differs little from its predecessor’s.

Peace and Reform: Europe’s Role in the Post-Karabakh War Caucasus

Europe has a role to play in rebuilding the South Caucasus and promoting a sustainable future. One important dividend would be democracy promotion in the region. A Russian-enforced peace could be remarkably conducive to that end.

The Politics of Defeat: How Will the Crisis in Armenia End?

Despite the trauma of Armenia’s defeat in the recent Karabakh war, protests against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have been underwhelming. He may not have lived up to expectations, but few believe his rivals could offer a significantly better future.

A Precarious Peace for Karabakh

The November 10 agreement could turn out to be a rapidly assembled construction that is not sustainable. Moscow may need wider international support to make it work.

What Will the Next U.S. Administration Mean for the Caucasus and Central Asia?

Biden’s rhetorical support for the region will make it easier for Central Asian and South Caucasus governments to bring their issues to Washington's attention. But a Biden administration may not have the bandwidth to take on many new problems.
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