New Eastern Europe

29.11.2021

Why Little Lithuania Is Taking On Mighty China

By acting as the driving force behind anti-Chinese initiatives, Lithuania hopes to focus U.S. attention on the region and procure guarantees that Washington will not scale back its presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.
12.11.2021

The EU’s Latest Migrant Crisis: Will Belarus Get Its Way?

There are no signs that anyone in the EU is ready to bow to Lukashenko’s pressure. There’s no reason to do so. In the worst-case scenario, the EU will end up with a few thousand extra refugees: a drop in the ocean.
10.11.2021

Russia-Belarus Integration: Why Moscow Gained So Little

In the current situation, the main objective for the Kremlin is to maintain a controlled, pro-Russian transition of power in neighboring Belarus. If that means sacrificing closer integration, so be it.
5.11.2021

Moldova’s Gas Crisis and Its Lessons for Europe

The Moldovan crisis has demonstrated that Gazprom’s price will not be higher than the price set by the European hubs, which makes Gazprom a supplier like any other, and may be lower, which could make Gazprom a preferred supplier in countries with weaker economies.
5.11.2021

How Long Will the Russia–Moldova Gas Truce Last?

The gas crisis could be a moment of truth for Moldova, which has an opportunity to take energy security more seriously, root out sectoral corruption, implement energy efficiency projects, build capacity to operate on the European gas market, and enhance cooperation with Ukraine. Achieving all this would not exclude Russia, but it would make energy a market issue, rather than a geopolitical one.
17.09.2021

Have Moscow and Minsk Really Made a Breakthrough on Integration?

Putting too much pressure on Belarus right now could backfire and lead to unforeseen consequences. It would appear that Russia understands that, and is therefore playing the long game on integration.
12.08.2021

Minsk Is Teetering on the Brink of a Dangerous Escalation

Not so long ago, Minsk scored foreign policy points by positioning itself as a force for regional stability; a counterbalance to an aggressive Russia. Today, Moscow’s unwillingness to get embroiled in conflicts with NATO at the whim of its ally could be the only factor exercising any restraint on Lukashenko.
6.08.2021

Can Russia and Poland Ever Overcome Their Historical Differences?

Polish society will not accept the Russian interpretation of World War II and vice versa, so the two nations should stop trying to force their revisions onto each other and jeopardizing their relations over every historical bone of contention.
9.07.2021

Will Tough New Sanctions Change the Course of Events in Belarus?

If Moscow and the West manage to de-escalate their confrontation, Lukashenko’s main currency—his demonstrative anti-Western stance—will be devalued in the eyes of the Kremlin.
4.06.2021

Podcast: Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?

“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What do the latest developments in Belarus mean for the country’s future?
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