New Eastern Europe


Where Does Belarus Stand in the Russia-West Standoff?

If there was once speculation about how the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko would act in the event of a major regional conflict, that is no longer the case. Belarusian territory is simply a staging area for the Russian army, and the extent of the threat from Belarus is determined by one factor alone: how keen the Kremlin is to go to war.

Why Lukashenko Has Recognized Crimea as Russian Territory

Lukashenko will have to provide Moscow with constant reminders of his loyalty, and following his recognition of Crimea, there are few options left for further rhetorical and symbolic concessions.

Why Little Lithuania Is Taking On Mighty China

By acting as the driving force behind anti-Chinese initiatives, Lithuania hopes to focus U.S. attention on the region and procure guarantees that Washington will not scale back its presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.

The EU’s Latest Migrant Crisis: Will Belarus Get Its Way?

There are no signs that anyone in the EU is ready to bow to Lukashenko’s pressure. There’s no reason to do so. In the worst-case scenario, the EU will end up with a few thousand extra refugees: a drop in the ocean.

Russia-Belarus Integration: Why Moscow Gained So Little

In the current situation, the main objective for the Kremlin is to maintain a controlled, pro-Russian transition of power in neighboring Belarus. If that means sacrificing closer integration, so be it.

Moldova’s Gas Crisis and Its Lessons for Europe

The Moldovan crisis has demonstrated that Gazprom’s price will not be higher than the price set by the European hubs, which makes Gazprom a supplier like any other, and may be lower, which could make Gazprom a preferred supplier in countries with weaker economies.

How Long Will the Russia–Moldova Gas Truce Last?

The gas crisis could be a moment of truth for Moldova, which has an opportunity to take energy security more seriously, root out sectoral corruption, implement energy efficiency projects, build capacity to operate on the European gas market, and enhance cooperation with Ukraine. Achieving all this would not exclude Russia, but it would make energy a market issue, rather than a geopolitical one.

Have Moscow and Minsk Really Made a Breakthrough on Integration?

Putting too much pressure on Belarus right now could backfire and lead to unforeseen consequences. It would appear that Russia understands that, and is therefore playing the long game on integration.

Minsk Is Teetering on the Brink of a Dangerous Escalation

Not so long ago, Minsk scored foreign policy points by positioning itself as a force for regional stability; a counterbalance to an aggressive Russia. Today, Moscow’s unwillingness to get embroiled in conflicts with NATO at the whim of its ally could be the only factor exercising any restraint on Lukashenko.

Can Russia and Poland Ever Overcome Their Historical Differences?

Polish society will not accept the Russian interpretation of World War II and vice versa, so the two nations should stop trying to force their revisions onto each other and jeopardizing their relations over every historical bone of contention.
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