New Eastern Europe


Can Moscow Manage a Power Transition in Belarus?

From an overripe apple that looked sure to drop into Moscow’s lap all on its own, the Belarusian regime is increasingly coming to resemble a toxic asset that’s as difficult to engage with as it is to get rid of.

In Belarus, China Is Neither at Odds With Russia nor Wedded to Lukashenko

Courted by Alexander Lukashenko since the 2000s, China has gradually expanded its presence, economic and otherwise, in Belarus. However, its strengthening position there has not come at Russia’s expense, and, as unrest spreads following last month’s presidential election, there is little reason to expect China to step in to rescue the embattled president.

Dictator’s Dilemma: Why Lukashenko Is Still Clinging On

Lukashenko faced the classic autocrat’s dilemma: avoid a revolution by making compromises and introducing elements of real democracy, or—regardless of the growing price of hanging on to power—fall back on costly repression with costly consequences.

Turmoil in Belarus: Looking Beyond the Horizon

Friends of Belarus need to recognize that a revolution is not the end, but merely the beginning of what is certain to be a long and difficult road toward making it a “normal country.” 

Game Over for Lukashenko: the Kremlin’s Next Move

The Kremlin has had enough of Lukashenko, but it cannot allow Belarus to follow the path of Ukraine and become another anti-Russian, NATO-leaning bulwark on its borders.

Belarus’s Fight for Freedom

The impending collapse of the Belarusian regime and whatever comes next reveal a lot more than events in Ukraine did about possible political transformation in Russia.

Belarus Protests Signal the Autumn of Lukashenko’s Regime

It’s not yet clear how the country will emerge from this political crisis, but it’s safe to say things won’t go back to the way they were.

Can Russia-West Divide Save “Europe’s Last Dictator” in Belarus?

Both Russia and the West may be sick and tired of the mercurial Belarusian autocrat, but they still see him as the lesser evil.

Mercenaries’ Arrests Deepen Minsk-Moscow Rift

Whatever the truth behind the arrests of alleged Russian mercenaries in Belarus, the incident cannot fail to exacerbate the main problem in the relationship between Minsk and Moscow: a protracted crisis of trust.

Embattled Lukashenko Loses Friends in East and West

Belarus is moving toward a new geopolitical identity. Instead of its status as a peacekeeper between East and West, Minsk may soon find that it lacks a good relationship with either side.
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