This is a legacy website featuring a collection of work by the Carnegie Endowment’s global network of scholars on topics including Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, and the post-Soviet states. This site is a product of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based in Washington, D.C. For more recent work by Carnegie scholars in this field, please visit Carnegie Politika.
The recent developments in Ukraine have effectively put an end to the interregnum of partnership and cooperation between the West and Russia that generally prevailed in the quarter-century after the Cold War.
Putin interprets the victory of the Maidan in Ukraine as a victory of anti-Russian and pro-Western forces. He is very concerned about the possibility of having an anti-Russian state right on the Russian border.
The crisis in Crimea is perhaps the most dangerous point in Europe’s history since the end of the cold war. It is likely to alter fundamentally relations between Russia and the West and lead to changes in the global power balance.
The crisis in Crimea is the most dangerous moment since the end of the Cold War, with the risk of not only an escalation of tension between Ukraine and Russia, but also between Russia and NATO.
The possibility of a Russian military operation in Ukraine that is not limited to Crimea is real. Russia and the West are on the verge a confrontation far worse than over Georgia in 2008.
Crimea is the most serious potential conflict in postrevolutionary Ukraine. The crisis could lead to a hot war in Ukraine and dramatically increase tensions between Russia and the West—no effort should be spared to avert this scenario.
Although Russia has failed to get at the Winter Olympics the one prize it particularly coveted, the ice hockey title, it managed to win a far more important victory—in ensuring that the Games, the athletes, and spectators were safe. However, making Russia safer remains a challenge.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
Russia has far less influence in Ukraine than is commonly appreciated. Moscow’s best option is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine.