New Eastern Europe

How stable are the new political systems in the region? Can these young states cope with the challenges of transition and modernization? Is there only one successful model, or is there also room for authoritarian-led economic growth, as in Russia and Belarus? How successful will the democratic projects be in the Baltic states, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova?

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Where Does Belarus Stand in the Russia-West Standoff?

    If there was once speculation about how the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko would act in the event of a major regional conflict, that is no longer the case. Belarusian territory is simply a staging area for the Russian army, and the extent of the threat from Belarus is determined by one factor alone: how keen the Kremlin is to go to war.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Why Lukashenko Has Recognized Crimea as Russian Territory

    Lukashenko will have to provide Moscow with constant reminders of his loyalty, and following his recognition of Crimea, there are few options left for further rhetorical and symbolic concessions.

  • Commentary

    Perspective from Russia: Belarus and Russia – Allies More in Words than in Deeds

    Few international issues generate more conflicting interpretations than the military cooperation between Belarus and Russia. Alternating between secretive deals and acrimonious disputes, this bumpy relationship regularly puzzles even close observers. At times, the two countries’ dealings are so confusing that the very same arrangements may be seen as either a major boost or a severe blow to Belarusian sovereignty, depending on the viewpoint of the beholder.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Why Little Lithuania Is Taking On Mighty China

    By acting as the driving force behind anti-Chinese initiatives, Lithuania hopes to focus U.S. attention on the region and procure guarantees that Washington will not scale back its presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The EU’s Latest Migrant Crisis: Will Belarus Get Its Way?

    There are no signs that anyone in the EU is ready to bow to Lukashenko’s pressure. There’s no reason to do so. In the worst-case scenario, the EU will end up with a few thousand extra refugees: a drop in the ocean.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Russia-Belarus Integration: Why Moscow Gained So Little

    In the current situation, the main objective for the Kremlin is to maintain a controlled, pro-Russian transition of power in neighboring Belarus. If that means sacrificing closer integration, so be it.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Moldova’s Gas Crisis and Its Lessons for Europe

    The Moldovan crisis has demonstrated that Gazprom’s price will not be higher than the price set by the European hubs, which makes Gazprom a supplier like any other, and may be lower, which could make Gazprom a preferred supplier in countries with weaker economies.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    How Long Will the Russia–Moldova Gas Truce Last?

    The gas crisis could be a moment of truth for Moldova, which has an opportunity to take energy security more seriously, root out sectoral corruption, implement energy efficiency projects, build capacity to operate on the European gas market, and enhance cooperation with Ukraine. Achieving all this would not exclude Russia, but it would make energy a market issue, rather than a geopolitical one.

  • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Have Moscow and Minsk Really Made a Breakthrough on Integration?

    Putting too much pressure on Belarus right now could backfire and lead to unforeseen consequences. It would appear that Russia understands that, and is therefore playing the long game on integration.

    • August 25, 2015
    • KCRW’s To the Point
    Dmitri Trenin
    The US, Russia, and “Hybrid Warfare”
    Watch Now >
    • February 27, 2015
    • Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs
    Dmitri Trenin
    The United States, Russia, and Ukraine: Report From Moscow
    Watch Now >
    • July 21, 2014
    • WBUR’s Here and Now
    Dmitri Trenin
    The Russian View of What Happened to Flight MH17
    Watch Now >

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    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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