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Cyber security has moved to the very center of contemporary security concerns worldwide. Reports of major cyberattacks, with the potential to paralyze the critical infrastructure of entire nations, are increasingly frequent. A nexus between cyber and nuclear capabilities puts the issue of global strategic stability in a completely new light.
The nature of the Afghan problem for Central Asia and Russia lies in Afghanistan becoming a source of instability for the region.
The central feature of the new strategy is its focus on Russia itself. The Russian leadership has every reason right now to turn homeward to address the glaring weaknesses, imbalances, and inequalities of the country’s internal situation.
For now, there is no public discussion of exploiting Antarctic mineral deposits, but in 2048, the Madrid protocol banning mining is due to be reviewed, and it’s unlikely the status quo will remain in place.
Fresh attempts to expose Russian “red line” deterrence as hollow—whether on the ground, in the air, or at sea—would push Moscow to defend what it cannot give up without losing its self-respect. This would almost inevitably lead to clashes and casualties, which would carry the risk of further escalation.
What Moscow is proposing is a renewed format of Cold War–era relations, when the two sides operated in full recognition of their obvious differences, contained each other’s expansion, and together wrote the rules needed to avoid a fatal collision.
Putin will probably be interested in assessing where Biden’s real concerns lie; where the sensitive areas may be in which mutual restraint, rather than unattainable compromise arrangements, may be the best way forward for now; and how the United States might act and respond under different scenarios.
With expectations low in Moscow, the Kremlin is looking for limited deescalation.
The following is based on remarks that James Acton gave to journalists on June 10, 2021 ahead of the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva.
The U.S.-Soviet alliance during World War II has often been presented in Russia as a paragon of ideal relations between Moscow and Washington: co-equal, realist to the core, and successful. Even during the Cold War it was praised as an example of what the two powerful countries could do if only they were united by a compelling common cause.