This is a legacy website featuring a collection of work by the Carnegie Endowment’s global network of scholars on topics including Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, and the post-Soviet states. This site is a product of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace based in Washington, D.C. For more recent work by Carnegie scholars in this field, please visit Carnegie Politika.
The Western media’s focus on Russia has ignored the fact that it was Ukraine’s revolution, made in Ukraine by Ukrainians. But now Ukraine’s domestic politics is full of uncertainty.
The Ukrainian drama is far from over, and the international actors bear responsibility for its length and excruciatingly painful results.
Only the first stage of revolution in Ukraine is over. The serious challenge for Ukraine is how the common people will be involved in controlling the new power.
Moscow needs to play its hands wisely and avoid supporting the separatist movement in Ukraine, which could give Kyiv a pretext to send in troops to restore constitutional order.
Ukraine’s “February revolution” is sometimes described as a major blow to Russia and to President Vladimir Putin, personally. In fact, it may be a blessing in disguise for both.
Russia has far less influence in Ukraine than is commonly appreciated. Moscow’s best option is to stand back and wait, while quietly favoring decentralization in Ukraine.
The compromise between Yanukovych and the leaders of the opposition is a long-overdue step back from a disaster, but much remains unclear. Ukraine will face a set of grim prospects, the worst of which is that the country is running out of money.
Without clear knowledge of what role radical and paramilitary groups, or Yanukovych loyalists, played in touching off this past week’s violence, all eyes must be on the people with the guns, not the politicians.
As Ukraine is teetering on the brink of a civil war, the West and Russia have found themselves on the brink of new confrontation. Instead, they should cooperate on Ukraine and push the Ukrainian sides toward stopping violence.
The defeat of the Ukrainian regime was a severe blow to Vladimir Putin personally. Any victory of Ukrainian revolution could act as an inspiration for the Russian people as well.