• Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Sergei Kiriyenko: The Dreamer in the Kremlin

    Many say Sergei Kiriyenko, the new deputy chief of staff of the presidential administration, is a technocrat who was brought in to manage a well-established political system. But there’s more to Kiriyenko: like other disciples of the philosopher Georgy Shchedrovitsky, Kiriyenko believes that reality can be altered and society programmed.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Kremlin-Duma Reshuffle Offers False Hope to Russian Reformers

    The nominal architects of the internal political machine must be replaced with operators: people who will manage the status quo without changing its fundamental principles. This is the role that Sergei Kiriyenko is going to play. It’s a case of the trends dictating the logic of the management, rather than the manager setting the trends.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Looking to 2018: The Kremlin Plans Its Next Election

    The Russian authorities delivered a resounding victory for the ruling party in the 2016 parliamentary election after reaching the conclusion that they showed weakness in 2011 and the Russian opposition exploited that. This will shape their strategy for the next presidential election in 2018.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Hidden Agenda of Russia’s Parliamentary Elections

    The detailed results of the forthcoming elections to Russia’s lower house of parliament are less important than the conclusions the Kremlin draws from them. Vladimir Putin’s system is less and less interested in old-style political competition. The new Duma can become a launching pad for those who want to make their careers in the new Putin elite that forms after the 2018 presidential election.

    • Research

    Another Rubber Stamp Duma?

    The 2016 parliamentary campaign isn’t just a test run for the 2018 presidential race. Russia’s political regime is in search of a governing model that will help it sustain the status quo for the foreseeable future.

    • Commentary

    All the President’s Little Men

    The presidency is the only institution in Russia today that has not been hollowed out, so it is the president who will make all major political decisions. Everyone else is just a liaison officer.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    The Battle for Bashneft

    In the past, business deals could be secured if Putin endorsed them personally. Now, the Russian president seems to have stopped making promises to anyone; no deal is ironclad anymore.

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Out With the Old, In With the New for Russia’s Political Elite

    Putin won’t take all the members of the old guard with him in 2018. They will be replaced by a generation of special service operatives, security guards, and technocrat-apparatchiks in their forties and fifties, who will stand by Putin in 2018 and beyond

    • Carnegie.ru Commentary

    Russian-Turkish Relations: Quick to Destroy, Slower to Mend

    While the Erdogan-Putin summit in St. Petersburg on August 9 aimed to end the conflict between the two presidents triggered by Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet last year, upbeat reports and promises of eternal friendship conceal a long list of problems that can’t be solved any time soon

    • Commentary

    Playing the Long Game: Why Putin Won't Call a Snap Presidential Election

    Putin drew several conclusions from the mass protests of 2011-2012. They convinced him that the mandate he received from “the people,” is much more important than the views of the small and overly outspoken segment of progressive citizens.

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